Opportunity Stats
By: Robert Cobb

FantasyFootball.com is proud to introduce the Opportunity Stats Report.  Culled from the NFL game books each week, the Opportunity Report provides important statistics that are not available in a typical box score.  As fantasy owners, we need to know how many times a player is being given the opportunity to score points.  This report tells you which players are being fed the ball and which are making the most of their chances.

How does it help me?
When deciding which players to add and drop, you need to recognize emerging players before they have that breakout game and highlight declining players before it is too late to get any trade value out of them.  From a fantasy perspective, one of the best indicators of the emerging/declining player is the number of opportunities they are receiving.  An opportunity occurs when a player is given a chance to score fantasy points.  You often hear this referred to as touches (for running backs), and targets (for wide receivers).  Reading how many rushing attempts, catches, and passing attempts each player had in the box score gives us some of this information, but it does not tell us the following:

• How many times was a receiver thrown to?
• How many times did a player have a legitimate shot at scoring a TD?
• How many catches and carries were nullified by penalties?
• How many times was a player given the ball in the red zone?
• Did any players come close to scoring a TD on a long catch or run?

The Opportunity Report answers these questions and more.  Receiving, rushing, and passing plays are broken up into the following categories to help you identify which player would benefit your team the most:

Receptions (Rec)
The number of balls that the player caught regardless of whether the play was nullified by a penalty.

Receiving Opportunities (Rec_Opp)
Also known as targets.  This is the number of times that a forward pass was intended for the player regardless of whether he caught it, if he dropped it, if it was uncatchable, or if the play was nullified by a penalty.

Rush Attempts (Rush)
Also known as carries.  This is the number of times that a player was given the ball on a running play regardless of whether he fumbled or if the play was nullified by a penalty.

Pass Attempts (Pass)
The number of forward passes thrown by a player regardless of whether the pass was complete, intercepted, or if the play was nullified by a penalty.

Scoring Opportunities (Pass_Sc_Opp, Rec_Sc_Opp, Rush_Sc_Opp)
A running play that started inside the 5 or ended inside the 5 or a passing play started inside the 10 or ended inside the 5 regardless of whether the play was nullified by a penalty.

Scoring Opportunities Resulting in a TD (Pass_Sc_TD, Rec_Sc_TD, Rush_Sc_TD)
TDs scored in scoring situations regardless of whether the play was nullified by a penalty.  Tells us which players are great near the goal line.  Who can give that extra burst or push to get in the end zone?

Red Zone Opportunities (Pass_Rz_Opp, Rec_Rz_Opp, Rush_Rz_Opp)
Occurs anytime a player is involved in a play where the line of scrimmage is inside the 20 regardless of whether the play was nullified by a penalty.

Red Zone Opportunities Resulting in a TD (Pass_Rz_TD, Rec_Rz_TD, Rush_Rz_TD)
TDs scored when the line of scrimmage was inside the 20 regardless of whether the play was nullified by a penalty.

Heart Breaks
A play of 5 yards or more that ends inside the 5 regardless of whether the play was nullified by a penalty.  This is a "heart break" because of how close fantasy owners came to scoring big points on the play.  Keep an eye on players who are getting 'Heart Breaks' to identify the home-run hitters. Note: Changed in 2008 from a play of 20 yards or more to a play of 5 yards or more.

Viewing a Report
Go to the Opportunity Stats link.  Select the Period (Weekly, Year to Date, 3-week) and week (if needed).  Select the position (WR, RB, QB, TE) to generate a new report.  Clicking on a column header will sort the report by that column.  The red highlighted column is the currently selected sorting option.

How does it work?
Each week, the custom-built FantasyFootball.com Gamebook Parser reviews all of the NFL game summary files.  Each play is filtered for runs, passes, incompletions, interceptions, etc.  The players must be identified, line of scrimmage established, targeted receiver isolated, and ending yard marker recorded.  The results are saved in the FantasyFootball.com database where they are reviewed for accuracy before being made available as a report to our members.