Align to ADP Close

Selecting a baseline to use along with PAVT or RLV can be very confusing.  Fantasy sites are filled with discussions on the various methods used to establish a baseline.  Some are convinced that a certain approach is correct, so Draft Planner supports the entry of any baseline; however, there is no clear winner in the effort to define a baseline that works for everyone. That is, until now!

The whole point of the baseline is to level one position against another.  It is obvious that a kicker should not be listed in the top 50 players of our cheat sheet because one would never waste such a high draft pick on a position that will be available with high quality much later in the draft.  (Kickers are just an example.  The same problem often arises with Tight Ends and Defenses).  But kickers score a lot of fantasy points!  They score so many points that if they are just valued based on their fantasy production, we would rank them with lower tier wide receivers. So, people use the baseline to reduce the final value of kickers in relation to the other positions.  This helps, but it is often not possible to lower the kickers far enough down the cheat sheet.  The baseline approach can only drop the top kicker to a value of zero, yet there are many players with negative values that should be taken before the first kicker.  In response to this problem, owners start playing with the baselines of the other positions in an effort to drop the kickers further down the cheat sheet.  The baselines quickly become ridiculous fudge factors with the sole purpose of making the cheat sheet look like what the drafter desires.

Although it is often abused, the baseline is relevant as a leveling factor for your league roster requirements.  It will effectively reduce or increase the value of positions that your league places a high value on because of the number that are started, drafted, etc.  So, we're not going to throw out the baseline completely.  What we need to do is further adjust the player values after the baselines have been applied.  We need something to tell us where each position is typically being drafted to make sure our cheat sheet does not "reach" for players that could be available later.  This is where ADP (Average Draft Position) becomes invaluable.

The steps involved to align a PAVT or RLV cheat sheet with ADP is similar to the modification made by applying a baseline.

  1. For each position, find where the first player appears in the ADP list.
    Position Player ADP Slot
    QB1 Manning, Peyton 13
    RB1 Johnson, Larry 1
    WR1 Smith, Steve 12
    TE1 Gates, Antonio 26
    PK1 Rackers, Neil 115
    DT1 Bears, Chicago 84
     
  2. For each position, find where the first player appears in the PAVT or RLV list.  Record the associated PAVT/RLV value.
    Position Player Slot Value
    QB1 Manning, Peyton 13 119.2
    RB1 Johnson, Larry 1 175.4
    WR1 Smith, Steve 3 151.0
    TE1 Gates, Antonio 21 60.1
    PK1 Rackers, Neil 51 16.0
    DT1 Bears, Chicago 36 29.8
     
  3. Get the PAVT/RLV value associated with the ADP slots retrieved in step one.  Note that we don't care about positions or players in this step.  We just need the PAVT/RLV value of the player occupying the ADP slot from step one.
    ADP Slot PAVT/RLV Value
    13 73.7
    1 175.4
    12 79.8
    26 52.8
    115 -7.2
    84 0.0
     
  4. Calculate the difference ('ADP Alignment') in PAVT/RLV value needed to bring each position in-line with its ADP.
    Position PAVT/RLV Value PAVT/RLV Value at ADP Slot ADP Alignment
    QB1 119.2 73.7 45.5
    RB1 175.4 175.4 0
    WR1 151.0 79.8 71.2
    TE1 60.1 52.8 7.3
    PK1 16.0 -7.2 23.2
    DT1 29.8 0.0 29.8

     
  5. Reduce the PAVT/RLV value of each player by the 'ADP Alignment' calculated in step three and generate a new cheat sheet.  Note that the first player for each position now appears in the cheat sheet in approximately the same slot that they appear in the ADP list.  In order to get the first player at each position very near to their ADP slot, we must repeat steps 1-5 several times.  Draft Planner performs this loop up to ten times in an effort to get every position to within one slot of their ADP.  The exact location in the cheat sheet varies due to the fact that we are moving many positions at the same time (all except for RBs in this case).  The cheat sheet does not become a facsimile of the ADP list; rather, it is aligned as the first player at each position is taken at about the same slot.  More importantly, the difference in PAVT/RLV values between players and the value comparisons beyond the first players drafted at each position will be preserved.
    Position Player Slot Value after all iterations
    QB1 Manning, Peyton 11 33.7
    RB1 Johnson, Larry 1 175.4
    WR1 Smith, Steve 12 33.7
    TE1 Gates, Antonio 25 -1.7
    PK1 Rackers, Neil 114 -88.4
    DT1 Bears, Chicago 85 -66.0
 
Conclusion
PAVT and RLV are great for assessing the value of players under a particular league's scoring format.  The problem is that most of the fantasy world drafts by hype (RB Stud "Theory") and name recognition, not by grabbing the players who are the most valuable to their league.  By using PAVT or RLV, you have an advantage because you know the true value of each player, but you cannot simply draft off of this list because very few others are drafting by this same concept of value (even if they claim to use PAVT or RLV!).  We must acknowledge that a player's value on draft day is determined by where they are drafted.  By aligning the cheat sheet with ADP, we can keep an eye on the lemmings who scarf up positions at certain points in the draft.

Everyone should consider using the 'Align with ADP' feature now available in Draft Planner.  It removes the guesswork from your baseline decisions as you may now stick with baseline numbers that make sense.  The feature is selected by default, but is only invoked when creating a PAVT or RLV cheat sheet list for all players.  A list showing only a single position does not use the 'Align with ADP' option because the relative values of the players remains the same without it.  The calculations needed to align with ADP are also costly, and only run when a complete cheat sheet is being generated.

 
Further Research
Sample Draft Planner reports are provided below to further illustrate the affect of aligning with ADP.  The report on the left is for a point-per-reception league using PAVT.  It is not aligned with ADP.  The report on the right is for the same league, but it is aligned with ADP.