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ADP
Average Draft Position |
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| Average Draft Position (ADP) is
the average overall draft slot that has been used to draft each player in
real or mock fantasy drafts.
ADP reports have been available to fantasy owners for years from sites like
antsports.
Draft Planner displays ADP data collected from at least three web sites and
averages them together. The raw ADP data showing which site provided
each value and when can be viewed
here. |
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The Math |
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ADP is the simplest approach for determining player value.
If Player A has been drafted 1st in five drafts and 4th in five drafts, he
has an ADP of 2.5 ((1*5 + 4*5)/10 = 2.5). Note that the best possible draft
slot is 1 and not 0. The enhancement brought by Draft Planner is that
the ADP data is averaged from several sites. This weeds out
data problems (each player must be reported by at least 3 sources), and
helps combine the different types of leagues popular at each of the league
web sites.
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| Positives |
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Arithmetic is very simple
- A player's true value on draft day is defined by where
he is drafted and not where he is listed on someone's cheat sheet
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Negatives |
- Does not consider league scoring rules
- Can become a self-fulfilling prophesy (If everyone
used ADP to help determine who they draft, players may be reinforced
simply by tradition.)
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During the draft |
Unlike most other player value lists, ADP does give you some idea about
the order in which players should be drafted.
Although league roster sizes can throw the ADP values off, it can definitely be used during a draft to determine if a player
justifies his draft pick. The goal is to draft a player whose ADP
value is
in-line with the other players drafted near the pick. Draft a player
with a higher ADP
value than
those around him, and you will have overpaid. A player picked with a
lower ADP
value than those around him
is considered a bargain. The most effective use of ADP
is to
combine it with drafting tendencies and a real-time analysis of what is
going on in the draft. Average Draft Position (ADP) is helpful for
determining where players are actually being drafted, but determining how
much more or less a player is worth than their pre-draft value is dependent upon how many
things can be considered in the time it takes to make a draft pick.
A great drafter will be able to consider factors such as everyone else's roster
status, their estimation of player values, remaining strength at each
position, bye week implications, back-up needs, etc. Computer programs
such as Draft Predictor are
often employed to analyze this data and combine it with a list of player
values to suggest and even predict draft selections. Draft Predictor
uses ADP in two ways:
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It is shown along-side the
player values in the cheat sheet. If you are using a
PAVT,
RLV,
or custom
cheat sheet, the ADP data is shown in its own column so that you can run a
quick check to make sure that you are not over-paying for the player.
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The ADP values can also be used as the
actual player values within the cheat sheet. This can assist with
the prediction accuracy of Draft Predictor since it causes other owners to
perform an "average" draft, but it also provides a good baseline cheat
sheet.
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Acknowledgements |
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ADP has been around for as long as there
have been fantasy football leagues. For more information on how it has
been used and how it can be leveraged, see
FantasyFootball.com Fantasy University Series: ADP. |